The Reasons Saudi Investment Has Not Transformed Newcastle into Championship Contenders

The Newcastle manager isn't typically prone to histrionics or sweeping public pronouncements. So by his standards, his press conference after the weekend's 3-1 defeat qualifies as a angry tirade. His side scored first but the opposition took the lead by the interval, as well as hitting the post and having a penalty overturned by VAR, prompting Howe to make a triple change at the break.

“The opening period was particularly irritating,” Howe said. “I almost could have taken anyone off and I believe that was a reflection of where we were at that stage in the game and it’s very, very rare for me to have that impression. In fact, I don’t think I have since I’ve been manager of the club, therefore I believed the team needed a significant change at half-time. That’s why I did what I did.”

Three key players all came off at the interval and Newcastle managed to steady to an extent in the second half, without ever really looking like they could get back into the contest against a side that had secured just a single victory of their previous nine fixtures. Considering the congestion the middle of the table currently is, with just three points dividing the top spots from mid-table, and nine points between second and 17th, a sequence of twelve points from ten matches has not placed the Magpies adrift but, equally, they cannot finish the season in thirteenth place.

The Issue of Expectations

The challenge to an extent is one of perception. In the Saudi Public Investment Fund, Newcastle possess the wealthiest backers in the globe. The expectation when the Saudi fund acquired 80% of the club in recent years was that it would have a transformative effect, similar to the former Chelsea owner had at Chelsea or Sheikh Mansour had at Manchester City. The difference is that both of those owners took over before the advent of FFP regulations (while the ongoing charges against Manchester City relate to whether they violated those regulations once they were implemented).

Financial restrictions limit the capacity of proprietors, however rich, to invest funds on their teams and therefore likely would have slowed any Middle Eastern attempt to elevate Newcastle to the level of Manchester City. However it wasn't necessary for Newcastle’s spending to have been quite as cautious as it has been; they might have invested further and stayed inside the limit – or just accepted a fairly minor Uefa fine since their big problem is primarily with the European than the domestic rules.

Infrastructure Investment and Financial Rules

Additionally, stadium development is exempted from Profit and Sustainability calculations; the simplest way to raise income to create more financial headroom would be to extend or redevelop the stadium. Considering the location of the home ground, with listed buildings on two sides, in reality that likely implies building an completely new venue. There was talk in March of potentially making the nearby relocation to Leazes Park – opposition from local groups could surely have been surmounted with a commitment to build a replacement green space on the current stadium site – but there has been no movement on that proposal. There has occurred significant cutbacks from the PIF on a range of projects as it refocuses on domestic affairs; the approach to the football club appears completely in keeping with that change of approach.

The Alexander Isak Situation

The star striker episode was born of that conflict. A bolder management could have framed his transfer as essential to release funds for additional investment; instead there was a vain effort to keep him. This resulted in the team started the campaign amidst a feeling of frustration even with the signings of Woltemade, Yoane Wissa, Jacob Ramsey, Malick Thiaw and Anthony Elanga. The opening was indifferent: one win in their first six fixtures.

Yet it seemed a corner had been turned. They secured five in six before the weekend, a streak that included demolitions of a Belgian side and a Portuguese club in the European competition. That’s why the performance against West Ham was such a shock. The issue maybe is that the team's style is extremely intense, high-energy; a minor decrease in intensity can have significant consequences. Maybe the strain of Premier League, European and Carabao Cup competition, five fixtures in 15 days, had taken its toll. The German forward started all five games and looked especially fatigued.

The Nature of Modern Football

That’s the nature of today's football. Managers must be prepared to make changes. The manager has been unfortunate that Wissa’s fitness issue has meant he is lacking attacking options but, no matter how valid the explanations, the weekend's showing was unacceptable –particularly after taking the lead at a ground ready to turn on its home team.

Howe will wish it was merely a temporary setback, one of those days when everybody is off-colour simultaneously, but if the Magpies are to secure the European competition in the future, let alone one day mount an genuine championship bid, they must not be as unreliable as they have been.